One by one, women competing in the constant weight category used bifins or monofins to dive to a targeted depth and back to the surface, all in a single breath. But as Mia Hou of Taiwan took her turn, the red, white and blue Taiwanese flag — which had appeared earlier in the livestream — had disappeared. Organizers had removed the flag without warning after authorities in China , which claims the self-ruling island of Taiwan as its territory, stopped the livestream on platforms in the mainland.
The diving association representing Taiwan protested the decision, but was told the flag could not be restored in accordance with International Olympic Committee rules. In the following days, athletes from 10 countries, including the United States, asked that their flags be removed as well, arguing that sports should be politically neutral.
It comes as tensions between China and Taiwan ratchet up, with Beijing sending scores of warplanes toward the island, and Taiwanese officials trying to consolidate international support.
While experts say outright war is still unlikely for now, it is clear that the conflict between the two sides goes beyond military posturing, and is making itself felt far from the Taiwan Strait, drawing in countries and organizations around the world.
The defeated Nationalists fled to Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, and claimed they were the only legitimate Chinese government.
Most countries today, including the U. And while China pressures Taiwan in various ways, the military strides it has made in recent years put it in a stronger position than ever. China has long sent warplanes near Taiwan, home to The U. That has meant that CCP policy toward Taiwan is largely about what it wants to avoid, not what it wants to achieve — reactionary, not exploitative. We should worry that Xi may decide to take risks that his more constrained predecessors since Mao Zedong would not.
And yet, by most measures, the situation continues to erode. Bush At some point in the not-too-distant future, perhaps or , the PLA probably will have the organizational and warfighting capacity for a Taiwan operation that it has always lacked.
China will probably be the largest economy, and an even more dominant trading and advanced manufacturing powerhouse. Military, economic, information, and diplomatic coercion and inducements would all be in play, and the red line for threatened military force would shift from preventing permanent separation to a refusal by Taipei to begin the political process — there is language in the anti-secession law along these lines.
Perhaps a longer-term U. But even that would be a fraught domestic political step for the United States. Like so many of our culture-war issues in the U. RH: How do you expect Taiwan will respond to rising Chinese pressure in the next year? Indo-Pacific Command Commander Philip Davidson recently expressed concern publicly about the potential for conflict in the next six years. Where do you fall in this debate? McMaster that war is likely in a defined span of a few years. Taiwan President Tsai-ing Wen has called for allies to support Taiwan.
Why does China have Taiwan in its sights? What does Taiwan want? And, as tensions rise, how would the US — and Australia — be likely to respond?
Tourists and locals walk around a night market in Taipei in Credit: Getty Images. Taiwan split from the mainland after years of civil war between two rival political forces: the Chinese Communist Party and the Kuomintang.
The Kuomintang fled to Taiwan in , along with two million civilians. The Taiwanese Public Opinion Foundation found support for official independence for Taiwan, which could involve relinquishing its claim to the mainland in the constitution, had reached its highest level in July Some 54 per cent of respondents said Taiwan should become officially independent while Only But the Taiwanese government has maintained an ambiguous position on its international status to keep the peace.
The government has preferred to defend the status quo, which means it operates separately from China, rather than pushing for a formal declaration of independence from the mainland which could trigger a military response from China. Credit: Bloomberg. That depends on who you ask. Australia has not recognised Taiwan as an independent nation since it established diplomatic relations with Beijing in , which stipulated that the Chinese government had legal sovereignty over Taiwan and acknowledged Taiwan was a province of China.
Only 15 countries recognise Taiwan as an independent government, Nauru, Nicaragua and Palau among them. In September , under the promise of economic investment and aid, Kiribati and the Solomon Islands switched their allegiance to Beijing. The difficulty that has plagued the foreign policy of governments around the world is how they defend a country that they do not recognise.
It is now the democratic frontier.
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